Life happens. Protect your family and the family home to ensure
that it will always be there, no matter what life deals you.
This is an optional term insurance which ensures that if there
are multiple borrowers, and one passes away, the remaining
mortgage will be covered and paid out.

Q4 economic growth was much stronger than expected, as was the flash estimate for January ’21. This could help explain why interest rates have risen so fast recently and could portend a more optimistic statement from the Bank of Canada next week.

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the second wave and ensuing lockdown.

The January figure is noteworthy in that retail sales plunged as nonessential stores were closed in key parts of the country as we faced surging numbers of COVID cases. The strength came from resources, housing and government spending and the mild weather likely helped.

At its last meeting in January, the Bank of Canada (BoC) estimated that Q4 growth would come in at 4.8% (half the actual 9.6% pace) and that there would be a net contraction in Q1 of this year. The strength in Q4 emanated from very hot housing, some business investment in machinery, government outlays and a resurgence in inventory accumulation. Inventory build-up is often seen as a negative sign reflecting weak consumer spending. But maybe firms were preparing for a considerable rebound in demand.

Economists on Bay Street are upwardly revising their growth forecasts for this year, and no doubt the BoC will do so again when it meets next Wednesday. Clearly, the economy has been more resilient than expected. Will that change the Bank’s assessment of the continued need for monetary stimulus? Probably not. But it will likely temper their view that the next rate hike will not be until 2023, a sentiment the BoC has asserted regularly in the past.

Consumer spending was weak at the end of last year, not surprisingly given many stores were closed and a stay-at-home order was in place in several highly populated areas. Households have been hoarding cash. The savings rate declined to 12.7% in Q4 from as high as 27.8% earlier in the year, but that is still way above normal. Accumulated savings will provide a backstop for robust consumer spending once the economy opens up.

For all of 2020, the Canadian economy contracted by 5.4%–a substantially harder hit than in the US, which posted a 3.5% decline.

Bottom Line

The stronger-than-expected economy raises the potential that there is enough stimulus in the economy. The Trudeau government appears to be determined to hike government spending meaningfully in the next federal budget (likely coming this Spring). We know it is the government’s predilection to juice the economy for another couple of years, but that could well deserve a rethink.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

I’ve got good news and bad news. The bad news is: we’re not getting any younger. The good news is: we’re not going away anytime soon, either, as life expectancy for Canadians is higher than ever before! At least, I think that’s good news—check back with me in 2050 and let’s see how we all feel about it.

Globally, we’ve hit astoundingly high population numbers for people aged 65+, exceeding a threshold of 672 million people (about 8.9% of the total population) in 2019. That’s an increase of more than 500 million compared to 1960 when there were about 150 million people above 65+ globally (roughly 5% of the global population). Oh yes, that’s a whole lot of people.

In fact, it’s only going to get more crowded as the years go by, with the UN estimating that the number of older persons (above 60) is projected to reach 2.1 billion by 2050. And we think it’s crowded now!

This brings us to Canada’s own ageing population: according to Statistics Canada, “seniors are expected to comprise around 23% to 25% of the population by 2036, and around 24% to 28% in 2061”. With a shrinking working population supporting that ~25% segment, the precise economic implications are too varied to be certain of any firm outcome. What is certain is that the older members of our population will need a place to live, which will have a significant effect on Canada’s real estate landscape.

EFFECTS ON THE SUPPLY OF REAL ESTATE
Our ageing population affects the supply of property in the real estate market in several interesting ways. The expectation was that baby boomers would find themselves living in large homes with more space than they needed once they’d retired and their children moved out. At that point, they were supposed to sell their property and downsize to smaller (or less expensive) homes. This influx of property into the market (projected to be half a million homes) would help meet rental or purchase demand, in some cases allowing developers to re-purpose the property into larger, higher density structures (especially in cities).

However, changes to the real estate market may significantly affect how that scenario plays out in reality.

Small condos and detached or semi-detached townhouses used to be prime candidates for someone looking to downsize. Now, rising real estate prices (especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver) can make this an incredibly difficult endeavour.
Millennials (and soon Gen Zs) have begun to move back in with their parents, as they struggle to contend with exorbitant rent prices, lack of steady work, and extremely high property prices. It’s proven economical for them to live at home rent-free (or at least, with a much lower rent) and save their money to put towards buying homes of their own later.
With more reasons to remain in their current homes (such as their kids moving back in with them), as well as high property prices and a lack of suitable options to downsize to, older homeowners are increasingly choosing to hang on to their property. This, of course, delays the timeframe in which their (usually larger) homes will be released into the housing market, which in turn will further exacerbate property shortages.

EFFECTS ON THE DEMAND FOR REAL ESTATE
Our ageing population has implications for the demand side of the real estate market as well. Accessible property, for example, will increasingly grow in demand as people get older. Fierce competition in the housing market has made it difficult for older people to acquire suitable apartments or houses that cater to their needs (such as, ground floor units or accessibility-friendly rental housing).

Affordable, smaller housing with room for live-in or part-time caregivers, especially in close proximity to essential services and infrastructure (health services, public transit, malls/grocery stores, etc.) will become much more desirable as our population ages.

Some of this demand will likely be met by the government, as it works to fund the construction of homes for senior citizens through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This will prove vital in the years to come, as increasing numbers of modest to middle-income Canadians retire and start being priced out of the normal rental market. However, with Canada’s population projected to increase at a sharp rate until the middle of the century, we’ll need more than just government intervention to address the issue.

FINAL THOUGHTS
The effects of an ageing population on Canada’s own future will be far-reaching, but impossible to predict definitively. That’s not to say we don’t have a good idea of what the likely outcomes are—we’ll need more housing, and we’ll need to be able to support older Canadians, to name two—but nothing about the upcoming decades is written in stone. The manner in which our government addresses social security issues, housing crises, and indeed, which government we even have in power will all play a role in securing stability or uncertainty.

Any speculation on the effects of projected population growth figures should be tempered with the understanding that they’re precisely that: projections. Not everyone agrees with the UN’s assessment of rampant increases, arguing that we might see a return to “normal” population levels towards the end of the century instead of endlessly spiraling into overpopulation. But whatever the outcome, it’s important that we’re paying attention.